The best prognosticators I know of are at Elliott Wave.  I have referred to their work here many times.  If I have not made their views clear before, then I shall do so now.  From their January 14, 201 Theorist: “the fact that investors are still giddy – which is an apt word for today’s readings on sentiment indicators – is consistent with our Elliott wave case that  the bear market has barely begun.  The year 2010 should get people to understand what we have been saying throughout this time: (1) the peak in 200 was not just the end of a Primary –degree bull market but the peak of a Grand-Supercycle-degree wave that lasted over 200 years, and (2) the current bear market will prove to be the deepest and longest since the 1700’s.”  They are predicting the Dow to fall steeply to 1,000 and then bounce around for a while before falling to 400.  Before writing their words off totally, please look at their recent history for predicting the top of the markets, the fall and the bounce which we have just experienced.  It is eerily accurate.  Here is their web site: www.elliottwave.com

 Michael