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Chickens Coming Home to Roost?
The Federal Reserve's actions (exponentially increase the money supply) have reduced the value of the dollar. One of the unintended (but known) consequences of a devalued dollar is that foreigners, mainly foreign governments, will seek to reduce their exposure to the falling dollar by moving away from the US currency. This has already been quietly happening with some countries quietly seeking to be paid for oil, for example, in Euros rather than in dollars. These countries are under pressure to either not make these moves or to do so quietly so as to avoid a world wide "dump the dollar" campaign which would drive the value of the dollar down further. Here is a quote from an article on this subject from the online Financial Times:
Quote:
Some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are seeking to scale back their exposure to the US dollar in a sign of global concern about the currency.
One big sovereign fund in the Gulf has cut its dollar-denominated holdings from more than 80 per cent a year ago to less than 60 per cent, while China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings.
…
The shift at China’s SAFE is significant because it holds the majority of the country’s $1,600bn in foreign currency reserves in dollar instruments and has lagged behind other governments, such as Singapore, in diversifying its currency exposure. SAFE has been holding talks with Europe-based private equity firms about putting billions of dollars into their latest funds, precisely because these funds are not dollar-denominated, say people familiar with the matter.
By allocating money to Europe-based private equity firms, SAFE could diversify away from the dollar, at least at the margin, without spooking the currency markets and driving the dollar down in a disorderly manner.
In addition, SAFE is encouraging the private equity firms with which it has relationships to make investments in natural resources companies in markets outside the US – in part, to hedge its exposure to the dollar.
…
Kuwait last year ended its currency link to the dollar, raising questions about whether other oil-rich Gulf states with similar arrangements would follow.
The largest of the sovereign wealth funds, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, is still committed to the dollar. ADIA’s subsidiaries make their investments without taking into account currency risks. A separate ADIA division then decides whether to hedge or not.
As long as the United Arab Emirates – which includes Abu Dhabi – pegs its currency to the dollar, a major departure from the current investment policy is unlikely. Moreover, ADIA staff say they worry that the euro may be at a peak against the dollar.
Still, dissatisfaction with the dollar peg is growing at the Abu Dhabi fund. “We are suffering. We are importing inflation for no reason,” says one ADIA staffer.
Here is a link to the whole article:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc250ac2-5361-11dd-8dd2-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Michael